In this episode, we break down how using emergency powers to combat the coronavirus can undermine fundamental democratic rights, and how some democratic leaders are using this emergency to consolidate power. We’ll talk about how emergency powers are being used around the world, and how democratic citizens can be vigilant.
HUNTER:
The coronavirus pandemic is an unprecedented threat. The need to impose social distancing and maintain order has led many countries to institute wide restrictions on people’s movements and businesses.
On some level, we need authoritarian powers to save lives, but we need to balance that need with the democratic norms that our countries are built on. In this episode, we’ll explore how the use of emergency powers to combat the virus is an opportunity for closet authoritarians to chip away at the democracies they represent. We will talk about what emergency powers are, and give some examples from around the world of how they’re being used.
RYAN:
Writing this episode, we realized a strong analogue to the current problems facing democracy is actually from Star Wars of all places.
The prequel movies feature the rise of Chancellor Palpatine, the head of state, who argues for emergency powers during a civil war.
Over the course of the war, more and more powers of the senate are granted to Palpatine, until at the climax of the conflict, he convenes a special session of congress and declares that, in the interest of stability and security, the republic constitution would be reorganized into an authoritarian empire led by him.
By the time the senate realized his goal, Palpatine had amassed so much power that the senate could not effectively remove him from office. This is a perfect example of the risk of emergency powers–once given, they are hard to revoke.
RAMYA:
A real life example of the Palpatine Playbook in action is the ascendance of Adolf Hitler and the Nazi party in Germany.
Hitler became chancellor of the democratic Weimar (Wymar) Republic, and when the Reichstag (Think the Capitol Building and the White House combined) was burned to the ground, he received emergency powers to deal with the internal crisis.
We all know what happened from there.
HUNTER:
So, let’s talk about emergency powers. What are they, and what do they do?
RYAN:
In most democracies there are provisions for suspending the constitution- whole, or in part- in order to preserve the stability of the nation in times of emergency. This includes insurrection, war, or in some cases national crises like pandemics. Oftentimes this state of emergency, whether real or perceived, gives enormous powers to the head of state that are normally held by the congress and the courts. While these powers are vital in a fast-moving emergency, history has shown time and time again that once implemented, they are difficult to remove.
RAMYA:
In response to the coronavirus pandemic, many democracies have invoked emergency powers outright, or have passed laws that restrict certain democratic norms in order to stop the outbreak.
This is a golden opportunity for “closet authoritarians” to erode the democratic norms and laws that typically govern their countries.
The worry is that some democracies that were already sliding towards authoritarianism. So-called “illiberal democracies” now have a chance to redefine government powers in a much less democratic form.
HUNTER:
Liberal democracies are what people generally think of when they think about what a democracy is. They have free and open elections, separation of powers, and countless freedoms afforded to the citizens. All of those things and more constitute what experts call an “Open Society”, and that is the hallmark of a liberal democracy.
Illiberal democracies share many traits with liberal democracies, mainly elections, but where they differ is in the civil liberties afforded to the citizens. Personal freedoms are curtailed, and there is a lack of transparency between the government and the constituents they serve. As such, illiberal democracies are not considered an “Open Society”.
RYAN
Now the invoking of full emergency powers is not the only way democracies can degrade. There are two kinds of democratic decay: the fast way, where emergency powers are invoked and never revoked, and the slow way, where compromises on democratic rights in the name of security slowly erode those rights. They are not diametrically opposed, in fact they often occur in conjunction with one another.
HUNTER:
So when we talk about erosion of rights, what types of rights are we referring to?
RAMYA:
There is a compelling case for the temporary banning of the freedom of assembly, as large groups of people can quickly spread COVID amongst themselves.
But, Restrictions on social gatherings can quickly morph into restrictions on assembly wholesale, especially in the event that people want to protest something they don’t like about the government.
Protests are one of the hallmarks of democracy, and banning them leads to a very slippery slope towards the total removal of a fundamental right in a free country.
RYAN:
The Freedom of Speech is also frequently under attack by emergency powers. It makes sense to punish those who distribute false information about a pandemic, but imagine if the government wanted to open the economy back up and started to crack down on people who were saying that the virus is still a threat to our safety.
It can even be expanded to prevent criticism of the government at large. This applies to both individuals and the media, which threatens another crucial right, the Freedom of the Press.
RAMYA:
And though it’s not as clearly defined as the previous two rights, let’s not forget the invasion of privacy that can occur under these circumstances.
Governments have been using surveillance tools to track the spread of the virus, but the problem with that is the government can gain valuable private information that can then be used against people.
RYAN:
So let’s take a look at how those rights are being eroded in liberal and illiberal democracies around the world. Hunter, do you have any examples?
HUNTER:
I’ve done a lot of digging into what I think is the most flagrant case of the Palpatine Playbook, which is what’s happening right now in Hungary.
Prime Minister Viktor Orban passed a law making him the prime minister indefinitely with no parliamentary oversight. The new law puts Hungary into a state of emergency with no time limit. Orbán will be allowed to rule by decree, and all elections will be suspended.
RAMYA:
That sounds like a recipe for disaster. Going back to the rights we mentioned before, are they being infringed in this case?
HUNTER:
Definitely. One of the new laws that Orban passed includes possible jail terms of up to 5 years for “spreading misinformation that hinders the government’s response”. The worry here is that this same power could be used to censor any criticism of the government at large, since the definition of misinformation is so broad.
What’s more, Orban has the sole ability to end the emergency, but as we can see, he also has the most to gain by keeping the emergency in place.
RYAN:
Sounds like this is all happening so fast in Hungary.
HUNTER:
This is actually a part of a continuing pattern of democratic backslide there. Orbán’s Fidesz Party controls parliament, along with the media and many government institutions. They’ve been slowly eroding at the norms and values of Hungary for years.
But what’s interesting here is that these emergency measures are in place despite a relatively low number of coronavirus cases–only about 2,000 confirmed cases and 225 deaths.
RAMYA:
That’s a crucial part of the Palpatine Playbook. The threat, whether real or perceived, gets distorted for the goals of a power-hungry leader.
So, do we see something similar in other countries?
RYAN:
Actually, we see something similar happening in Bolivia. Last October, a controversial election led to violent mass protests and the resignation of president Evo Morales.
Amidst the turmoil, a transitional government under Jeanine Añez took power on constitutionally dubious grounds and promised elections this May.
RAMYA:
So what’s happening with those elections?
RYAN:
Those elections have been delayed due to the coronavirus outbreak.
HUNTER:
That sounds a little tame in comparison to what’s happening in Hungary.
RYAN:
Well here’s where it gets tricky. The interim president Añez was supposed to just be a caretaker and promised as such, but she has since consolidated power and is running for an elected term.
The risk here is that the transitional government becomes a permanent state of affairs, where for one reason or another the elections never occur, or occur so late that the interim government can rig it to win.
HUNTER:
Now like we said before democracies aren’t always eroded quickly. Just look at israel–for all intents and purposes it’s a functioning democracy, but concerns over security have pushed the country in a much more illiberal direction over time.
Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party has been struggling with the left-leaning Blue and White party for months to form a coalition government, and coronavirus is injecting a lot of uncertainty.
Ramya, what can you tell us about what’s happening in Israel?
RAMYA:
Well, let’s start with what has made the headlines recently.
There have been mass “black flag” protests in response to stringent coronavirus policies, which include phone tracking and violating the privacy of civilians.
The government is using secret phone data software originally used for counterterrorism to track people’s health. People who break orders are fined or get 6 months in prison.
What’s worse is that the Knesset, which is the Israeli parliament, has shut down, leaving the executive branch with virtually no oversight.
HUNTER:
Tell us more about what’s going on in the Knesset.
RAMYA:
Speaker Yuli Edelstein from the same party as the Prime Minister ended the March 20th session just a few minutes after it began, making it impossible to form committees to oversee government actions during the coronavirus crisis.
Edelstein has also refused to hold a vote to choose a new Speaker of the Knesset, a position he has held since 2013, despite the clear parliamentary majority to replace him.
The courts have been shut down as well, and there is no judicial oversight on the executive branch. Netanyahu’s corruption case is effectively stalled for the foreseeable future, which raises questions about the true intent of these policies.
HUNTER:
This is not to say that more liberal and established democracies aren’t vulnerable to the Palpatine Playbook. We see similarities between Israel and India, which is the largest democracy in the world and what many would consider a liberal democracy.
RYAN:
India, like Israel, has neighbors that pose an existential threat to its government and people in Pakistan. Current issues with Pakistan have led to the rise of the right-wing BJP political party. And throughout India’s history, there have been a few state of emergencies called, most involving Pakistan.
HUNTER:
So have they declared a state of emergency for the coronavirus?
RYAN:
Sort of. The BJP under PM Narendra Modi have passed a new provision on a colonial law, The Epidemic Diseases Act of 1897, which dates back to Queen Victoria. The new provision expands on the non-specific powers that the 1897 bill instated. So as of right now, the Indian government has the power to:
- Track where people travel
- Prohibit the “unauthorised dissemination of COVID information in print or electronic media”
- Impose home or institutional quarantine.
- Perform coercive surveillance, inspection, inquiry and examination.
RAMYA:
So what’s been the result of these sweeping new powers? Have we seen them in action yet?
RYAN:
Well, The govt has already imposed home quarantine on almost the entirety of India’s billion+ population. The problem is that the lockdown has cut off many impoverished and rural communities from critical supplies like food and medical supplies.
While they are attempting to remedy the food shortages, the government has been using its afforded prohibition on “misinformation in the media” to shut down all stories about these starvation cases and the misallocation of resources.
So, moving away from India now, are there other countries that fit the same sort of formula that Israel and India fall into?
HUNTER:
Absolutely. South Korea is a strong example. The history of India and South Korea are both defined by their struggles with neighbors, in this case North Korea, who threaten their very existence. The difference between them is that the current South Korean government is much more liberal and hesitant to use extreme powers. But that hasn’t always been the case. South Korean democracy has had a turbulent past. Throughout the 60’s and 70’s, they were ruled under a military dictatorship led by Park Chung-Hee. His rule was based on keeping people safe from a potential attack from North Korea.
RAMYA:
So how does this relate to their coronavirus response?
HUNTER:
So S Korea has been praised for having one of the most effective coronavirus containment efforts. But the way they went about it raises some eyebrows. The government traced a hotspot of the virus to a small church/cult in the city of Daegu. The government then tracked and detained all members of this church around the country and tested them, then quickly locked down the city and all 9000 members of the church.
RYAN:
So how were they able to find all that out?
HUNTER:
South Korean authorities are using surveillance camera footage, smartphone usage data, and credit card purchases to track people. And this surveillance is incredibly invasive. With this information at their disposal, the govt can find out:
- when people left for work
- whether they wore masks in the subway
- the name of the stations where they changed trains
- the names of the clinics where they were tested for the virus.
- the massage parlors and karaoke bars they frequented
RAMYA:
I feel really conflicted about this. I would not want the government to know those sorts of things about me.
HUNTER:
Neither would I. But here’s the thing: these measures are certainly the reason why South Korea has had one of the best responses to Covid-19 across the world. but, it’s easy to see how things could progress into using this surveillance system for keeping track of political dissidents.
The current liberal govt isn’t likely to overstep their boundaries when it comes to using these powers, but the current govt is a liberal blip on an otherwise illiberal timeline of South Korea’s political history.
RYAN:
So we’re seeing a trend in geopolitics, where countries with big external security threats lean towards more conservative and illiberal governments. It gets back to that balancing act between democratic norms and security. What are some other governments that are caught in the same trap?
RAMYA:
A really interesting case is actually a liberal democracy in Western Europe.
France has had a long history of civil unrest, and is intimately familiar with emergency powers being enacted.
Since 1955, France has declared a state of emergency six times. It isn’t unheard of for France to also extend a state of emergency for longer and longer periods of time.
After the 2015 Paris attacks, France was in a state of emergency for almost 2 years. It was extended 6 times through 2 administrations.
The last of these extensions was after the Manchester Arena bombing, which wasn’t even in France.
HUNTER:
So how did that get resolved?
RAMYA:
The state of emergency ended only after France passed tough anti-terror legislation, which allows for easier searches of homes, and more importantly, confining individuals to their homes and towns, all without judicial approval.
HUNTER:
So have they declared a state of emergency for the Coronavirus?
RAMYA:
Yes, France has declared a state of health emergency based on the anti-terror legislation, which has been modified to fit the current pandemic.
As such, the state of health emergency has many restrictive policies in place.
- Residents are only allowed to leave their homes for an hour, only
- They can only exercise within about half a mile of their residence.
- They need to mark the time they leave home on a special form that they need to carry when they go outside.
RYAN:
So what does this mean in the grand scheme of things for France?
RAMYA:
In spite of France being familiar with emergency powers, the country went from a 2 year long state of emergency to an anti-terror law that sets a powerful precedent for any further legislation. Although tough actions are important to curb coronavirus, the recent state of health emergency was based on the anti-terror legislation. All of this happened within the last five years.
This isn’t to say that France is experiencing a democratic backsliding like what’s occurring in Israel or India, since there are such strong norms against the abuses of power. However, a precedent has been set for the expansion of specific powers towards a more general use.
HUNTER:
We’ve talked about democracies across the world and how coronavirus is affecting them. So let’s address the elephant in the room… What about the United States? It’s the foremost democracy in the world after all, so is it experiencing similar issues like the other countries we mentioned?
RAMYA:
The US was built on a foundation of anti-monarchy sentiment. The Founding Fathers ensured that there were powerful checks on executive power, particularly emergency powers. In essence, the US constitution is specifically set up to avoid the Palpatine Playbook.
RYAN:
And you could see those checks in action recently. In March, The Justice Department asked Congress for the power to eliminate legal protections for asylum seekers and detain people indefinitely without trial.
HUNTER:
That would be a huge expansion of the Justice Department’s powers, and not really in a good way.
RAMYA:
Absolutely, but thankfully bipartisan opposition shut it down in Congress. But still, the attempt was made.
RYAN:
True, and it’s a great example of how checks and balances are supposed to work, and how the United States constitution is prepared for these types of attacks.
HUNTER:
Exactly. However, no matter how prepared The US is for fast moving expansion of powers, Americans need to fear the slow erosion of their rights, like what has been happening in France.
So it’s clear from all these examples that the response to coronavirus is a threat to democratic systems everywhere. With that in mind, it’s time for final takes. Guys, what’s one thing that listeners should remember from this episode, if they remember nothing else?
RAMYA:
Classically, switching from democracy to authoritarianism has always been an issue of security. An external threat provides governments an avenue to institute authoritarian-leaning policies in the name of national security. A pandemic like coronavirus poses a similar threat to national security- both are an issue of safety for a country’s citizens. Right now, coronavirus is THE threat to security.
RYAN:
As we’ve laid out in this episode, coronavirus is a threat to democracy everywhere. You don’t have to live in Hungary to see the effects of the Palpatine Playbook. And it almost never starts with a hostile takeover of the government. It begins with the slow erosion of democratic norms and rights, like the right to privacy in the name of safety, and ends up with the removal of the key rights like the freedoms of expression, assembly, and privacy.
HUNTER:
The basic problem here is that effective pandemic response requires strong executive powers — but can democracies balance that need without resorting to a more coercive or authoritarian system? Many governments are capable of walking that line, but some are more vulnerable. Examples like Hungary remind us that democracy is only strong if the people are vigilant, and that emergency powers–once given–are hard to revoke.
HUNTER:
That’s the end of our episode today. If you liked the show please rate and subscribe on Itunes, Spotify, or however you’re listening. We’re also proud to announce the launch of our website, geopoliticsrundown.com, where you can find our episodes, our transcripts, and other short format content. If you have questions about the show or ideas for future episodes, you can also email us at geopoliticsrundown@gmail.com. As always thank you for listening, this…has been Geopolitics Rundown