In this episode of Security Sunday, your resident nerds tackle the operations of the infamous Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. We break down its mysterious Quds Force, it’s enigmatic former leader Qassem Soleimani, and why he was assassinated by the United States. Find out how the IRGC has been a part of every major conflict in the Middle East, including Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon. This Security Sunday builds on some of the themes from our last standard episode “Maximum Pressure”, so be sure to give both a listen!
HUNTER:
Hello and welcome to Security Sundays, part of Geopolitics Rundown. Security Sundays is a biweekly show that aims to bring our listeners a deeper understanding of some of the most pressing threats to international security. Let’s get started.
BACKGROUND: ASSASSINATION OF SULEIMANI
RAMYA:
If you listened to our last episode “Maximum Pressure”, you know that in January, the United States orchestrated the killing of Iranian General Qassem Suleimani. Suleimani, also called “The Shadow Commander” was an infamous spymaster and leader of the Quds Force, a division of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC.
RYAN:
The assassination was a top down operation, with Trump playing a pivotal role. He leveraged then Iraqi president Adil Abdul-Mahdi to get Soleimani to meet in Baghdad, under the pretense that Trump and Soleimani would negotiate terms of peace. Then, while he was driving through Iraq, Soleimani was struck by a US drone attack before he got to Baghdad.
HUNTER:
A lot of our listeners wanted to know more about who this man was, and why his death was so important that it almost sparked war with the United States. So what is the IRGC? And why did the United States go to such lengths to kill an IRGC General? In this episode, we will answer these questions, and give our listeners an idea of why this organization is such a dangerous force to be reckoned with.
RAMYA:
So guys, let’s start off with what the IRGC is. Ryan: When was it created, and what is its purpose?
RYAN:
The IRGC was founded in the immediate aftermath of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s fall in 1979. It is designed to operate beyond the bounds of the law and the judiciary. Answering to Iran’s supreme leader, its command structure bypasses the elected president. Essentially, it is a parallel military with the purpose of preventing coups against the Supreme Leader and leading the fight against Sunni Islam. (CFR)
RAMYA:
That sounds like quite the operation. How does it work?
RYAN:
Now, the IRGC is a massive organization. As a parallel military, it has both a navy and an air force.
RAMYA:
That’s interesting. Hunter, tell us more about the IRGC’s navy and airforce.
HUNTER:
The air force, while having some fighter jets, more importantly controls Iran’s stockpile of long range missiles, effectively overseeing the country’s ability to strike at its neighbors.
The navy is mainly used to project force in the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz. This small strait off the Iranian coast is the gateway to the Persian gulf and its oil fields. If it could be closed, it would deprive the world of a key oil route and put pressure on Iran’s oil-dependent neighbors like Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states. That exact scenario is what the IRGC navy is for, which is why you always hear about their boats harassing shipping in the gulf. They want to continuously demonstrate to the world that they have the ability to stop shipping in the persian gulf if threatened.
But what makes the IRGC so notorious–and dangerous–is the Quds Force.
RAMYA:
The IRGC clearly wields immense power in Iran. But let’s focus on the Quds Force. For our listeners at home, what is it?
RYAN:
The Quds Force, which comprises about 15,000 men, is an arm of the IRGC that specializes in asymmetric warfare and military intelligence, focusing on operations outside Iran. Until January, it was run by Qassem Suleimani.
RAMYA:
Now it makes sense why Suleimani was a priority target for the US. What makes the Quds Force special?
RYAN:
These guys are the real deal. They have been involved, in some form or another, in every major conflict in the middle east since the Iran-Iraq war in the 80’s. Their specialty is asymmetric warfare, especially by proxy.
RAMYA:
Let’s give our listeners a quick overview. If you remember from our last security Sunday, Asymmetric warfare is part of the playbook Russia used against Crimea. It refers to the use of irregular forces and tactics to fight in ways that are both hard to counter and hard to attribute. Irregular means using smaller groups of guerilla fighters against a conventional military.
HUNTER:
That’s right. In Iran’s case, its Quds Force funds, trains, and equips irregular militias all over the region to fight for Iran’s goals without directly involving the Iranian military.
RAMYA:
And why is that more beneficial for Iran than just, say, investing more in its standard military?
HUNTER:
This approach has two major benefits: it’s “cheaper”, and it is harder to trace back to Iran. For example, if Iran wanted to say…attack Saudi Arabia’s water supply, it could attack directly. It could use iranian missiles, troops, and tanks. But if they did, it would be a formal act of war. Saudi Arabia would counter-attack, the US and UN would get involved, and the conflict would escalate. But what if Iran used proxies? What if it armed Houthi rebels in Yemen, gave them long range missiles, and had those militias bomb Saudi Arabia’s water pipelines for them? That way, Saudi Arabia attacks the Houthis, not Iran. Iran’s troops are out of harm’s way, and there’s some plausible deniability. Iran’s mastery of proxy warfare allows them to keep their enemies off balance while minimizing the risk of a retaliatory strike.
RAMYA:
Wow. So the key is that nothing is traced back to Iran. Is it safe to say that asymmetric warfare comes with many advantages?
RYAN:
Absolutely. It is so effective, in fact, that Iran has franchised this model to include dozens of proxy groups across the middle east. Almost all of the current conflicts in the Middle East involve a Quds force proxy.
RAMYA:
Really? What are some examples? Where would you say the Quds force has been the most successful?
RYAN:
There are a couple of contenders depending on how you define successful, but I would say the Quds Force’s crown jewel is Hezbollah in Lebanon. They started Hezbollah from the ground up, forming a unified organization of Lebanese Shiites and training their leaders in asymmetric warfare. Hezbollah’s purpose was and has always been to counter Israel’s invasion of Lebanon and increase ties between Lebanon and Iran. To that purpose, it has since evolved to incorporate so many other aspects, that it might be an actual example of a “state within a state”.
RAMYA:
A “state within a state”? By that, do you mean a deep state?
HUNTER:
Sure, they mean the same thing really. Underneath the Lebanese government, the Hezbollah network runs independently and acts in accordance to its own goals. Its forces are so powerful that since 2006 they’ve been rated stronger than the actual Lebanese Army. There are Hezbollah radio stations, TV channels, and social programs.
There’s even a left-wing political party that has had seats in the Lebanese parliament since 1992. In fact, the current parliamentary coalition in Lebanon is led by Hezbollah, which means that they have huge sway over the government itself. Hezbollah is definitely the IRGC’s most critical success. In fact, they’ve been the chief executor of the Quds Force’s will in the region.
RAMYA:
So Hezbollah, in addition to having its own social programs, currently runs the ruling parliamentary coalition in Lebanon. From what you just said, it seems they are in cahoots with IRGC. I want to go deeper with that. Any examples of where Hezbollah has worked with the IRGC?
RYAN:
Well, the most prominent would be in Syria, and another example would be in Iraq. We’ll start with Syria.
The Quds force was deployed there in 2011, in the wake of the Arab Spring uprisings. Ostensibly, they were there in a limited capacity, only defending Shiite shrines and holy places.
In reality, the Quds Force was aiding Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to suppress the protest movement. You see, Iran is a supporter of the Ba’ath party that Assad leads, and they viewed the uprisings as a American-Israeli plot to turn Syria away from Iran.
RAMYA:
So many of us know that the conflict in Syria has devolved into a full-scale civil war. And it sounds like the Quds Force and Hezbollah played a large role in the conflict.
RYAN:
That’s right. The Quds Force and Hezbollah were instrumental to Assad’s efforts in the civil war. The Quds Force’s support, mainly by training soldiers and providing strategic advice, preserved Assad’s rule and elongated the conflict. They were military advisors and even front line combatants at times.
HUNTER:
Here’s where Hezbollah comes in. To bolster IRGC numbers, thousands of fighters from Hezbollah militias crossed the border into Syria to support Assad (CFR). They captured villages, killed rebels, and assaulted Sunnis for the purpose of protecting Lebanese immigrant and Shia communities in Syria, but it had the effect of greatly prolonging the conflict and increasing the casualties immensely. The IRGC also trained many Afghani and Pakistani immigrants to Iran who were “willing” to fight for Assad. The IRGC’s overall numbers in Syria have been reported to be anywhere from hundreds to tens of thousands.
RAMYA:
So the Quds Force and Hezbollah ensured that Assad would stay in power. Moving on from Syria, I recall you saying that the IRGC was involved in Iraq as well.
RYAN:
Iraq has been one of the Quds Force’s longest running operations. It began with the goal of sponsoring and arming the local Shia population to rise against the Sunni government led by Saddam Hussein. When the US invaded and overthrew Saddam, rallying against US occupation became the primary goal. The Trump administration attributed the deaths of 608 US soldiers in Iraq between 2003 and 2011 to the IRGC, and accused them of providing the oh so prevalent Improvised Explosive Devices, or IEDS, and shaped charges to the Shia militias there (CFR).
RAMYA:
So what happened when the US started withdrawing troops from Iraq?
HUNTER:
Those militias who were fighting the United States were then pivoted towards the fight against the rising Sunni-fundamentalist organization, ISIS. In fact, the Iranian government ordered the Quds Force to expand its operations to counter the spread of ISIS, lest it grow too powerful and march on the Iranian capital, Tehran. By 2015, the numbers of armed Shia militias in Iraq eclipsed the national army. Many of the militias pledged loyalty to Iran and were led by commanders who worked with the Quds Force against US occupation the prior decade (CFR). The most prominent of those militias is called Kataib Hezbollah, led by Abu Mahdi al-Mohandis, who was an Iraqi politician who collaborated with the Quds Force against Saddam and all endeavors after.
RAMYA:
So you’ve said that the IRGC has been party to practically all of the major conflicts that are currently going on in the Middle East. Are there more to mention?
RYAN:
Absolutely. There’s also Yemen, which we mentioned earlier in the episode. It’s one of the region’s deadliest wars and one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. In Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, you see the IRGC face off against the US and Israel, but in Yemen, you see them fight against their Sunni Arab neighbors in Saudi Arabia,the Emirates, Oman, and Kuwait. The Quds Force trained and equipped the Houthi rebels, who are an organization of Shia communities that has its own political movement and militias.
RAMYA:
Sounds very similar to their support of Hezbollah, but is that the case?
RYAN:
Yes and no. They are similar on the outside, but for one, the Houthis never reached the status of Hezbollah where they have a say in the Yemeni government. Also, in contrast to Hezbollah, Iran was not very involved with the Houthis until the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings in Yemen. Once that happened, the Houthi movement rapidly grew.
That rapid growth led the IRGC to turn up the heat and begin pumping in major support for the Houthis in the form of arms and technical support. This included not just guns and ammo, but surface to air missiles, rocket-propelled grenades, and rockets. The newly empowered Houthis turned the uprisings into a civil war against the Saudi and Emirati backed Yemeni government. The conflict has caused the people of Yemen to suffer immensely, with even vital resources like water being so scarcely available, making it one of the worst humanitarian disasters in modern history.
RAMYA:
In a way it’s a mirrored version of the Quds Force playbook in Syria, except this time they were supporting the rebels and not the government.
Now I’d like to track back to Qassem Soleimani. Would I be correct to assume that he would be important to these Quds Forces operations?
HUNTER:
That’s exactly right. Soleimani, was not just important, but absolutely irreplaceable to the IRGC’s international operations. He was the mastermind behind the asymmetric warfare tactics, and the one who maintained key relationships with the militia leaders and ensured their loyalty. His career as an IRGC operative made him a folk hero for the Shia people across the Middle East. He was the key factor that led to the creation of Hezbollah, Assad beating back the rebels in Syria, the humanitarian disaster that is Yemen, and the killing of hundreds of American soldiers in Iraq. These accolades made him the second most powerful man in Iran, and the country’s greatest military mind. All these factors lead up to Soleimani being number one on America’s hit list, and that’s why the Trump administration had him assassinated.
RAMYA:
I think that’s a good place to wrap this episode up–Do you two want to sum things up?
RYAN:
Soleimani and the IRGC are leading contributors to the proliferation of terrorism across the world, but its also one of the most effective practitioners of asymmetric warfare. They are leading the charge in how smaller militaries can deal with the overwhelming force that the United States and its allies can bring to bear. And judging by their successes in Syria and Iraq, they’ve been very effective at countering the United States across the Middle East.
HUNTER:
Besides being effective, the Quds Force is Iran’s go to military force because it is the key to two of Iran’s goals: Keeping its enemies off balance and spreading its revolutionary goals. It uses these asymmetric warfare capabilities to project force beyond its borders and, in effect, act as a force multiplier. It is a powerful weapon that can help deter actors like the United States. That’s why the US killed suleimani. It deprives the IRGC and Iran more broadly of its most potent asymmetric weapon.
RAMYA (Outro):
That’s it for security Sunday. If you liked this episode don’t forget to subscribe on Itunes, Spotify, or however you’re listening. If this episode got you interested in Iran, feel free to check out our episode on it called “Maximum Pressure”. Special thanks to Michael Hilliard of the Red Line podcast for his insights on Iran for this episode. Enjoy your memorial day weekend, this has been Security Sundays with Geopolitics…Rundown.